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Stripping Paint

Escaping Pursuit

by Avian

As most readers of my tactics articles will know, I am a great fan of getting many units into combats I expect to win, to maximise the chance of running down the broken enemy. There are few things more frustrating than beating an enemy unit soundly with a glorious flank charge and then watching the enemy unit outrun my pursuing unit, rally and reform to face me. This little scrip calculates the odds of a unit escaping pursuit.

 

Make your choices

Flee move:
Pursuit move #1:
Pursuit move #2:
Pursuit move #3:

 

Chance of escaping:

0.0%

Chance of being caught:

100%

 

The odds are calculated by taking the chance of the fleeing unit moving a certain distance and multiplying it by the chances of each pursuing unit failing to move that far. These odds are then summed up for the range band of the fleeing unit.

 

The odds

Thus you can see that by throwing in a cavalry unit to support an infantry unit that is expecting to beat a cavalry unit, you are essentially doubling the chance of running down the fleeing cavalry unit, whereas adding another infantry unit instead makes much less of a difference. Over all, adding infantry units to help a cavalry unit catch something makes very little difference, because the cavalry is so good by itself. Adding more cavalry, on the other hand, does wonders. Pursue an infantry unit with two cavalry units and it has a very, very low chance of escape.

 

2D6 random movement

Distance 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Exact 2.8% 5.6% 8.3% 11.1% 13.9% 16.7% 13.9% 11.1% 8.3% 5.6% 2.8%
Same or less 2.8% 8.3% 16.7% 27.8% 41.7% 58.3% 72.2% 83.3% 91.7% 97.2% 100.0%
Same or more 100.0% 97.2% 91.7% 83.3% 72.2% 58.3% 41.7% 27.8% 16.7% 8.3% 2.8%

 

3D6 random movement

Distance 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Exact 1.4% 2.8% 4.2% 5.6% 6.9% 8.3% 9.7% 11.1% 11.1% 9.7% 8.3% 6.9% 5.6% 4.2% 2.8% 1.4%
Same or less 1.4% 4.2% 8.3% 13.9% 20.8% 29.2% 38.9% 50.0% 61.1% 70.8% 79.2% 86.1% 91.7% 95.8% 98.6% 100.0%
Same or more 100.0% 98.6% 95.8% 91.7% 86.1% 79.2% 70.8% 61.1% 50.0% 38.9% 29.2% 20.8% 13.9% 8.3% 4.2% 1.4%

 

Conclusions

As you can see, adding another pursuing unit when you expect to win a combat is a great benefit when that unit has the same move (i.e. it rolls the same number of dice) as the enemy unit or higher. Adding another pursuing unit that is slower than the enemy unit has much less effect.

In particular, adding another pursue move - whether it is 2D6 or 3D6 - against an enemy unit that only moves 2D6" is very effective.

 

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